Short answer: you’ll trigger a highly aggressive, painful, and potentially dangerous swarm—and if the queen survives, the colony can rebuild nearby, especially in our mild climate.
Immediate defensive swarm. Social wasps coordinate nest defence using alarm pheromones from the venom sac; when the nest is struck, those chemicals “call” workers to attack the intruder. Expect many wasps to pour out and sting repeatedly. [entomology...fe.uky.edu], [pdfs.seman...cholar.org]
Multiple stings + pursuit. German yellowjackets (Vespula germanica) sting repeatedly and may chase for long distances when defending the nest—this is a serious health risk, especially if anyone has allergies. [extension.psu.edu]
Alarm scent can linger. Marking pheromones can remain on targets/substrates and keep drawing attacks for hours, so even “after” you knock it down the area can stay hot. [ars.usda.gov]
Colony outcome depends on the queen. If the queen dies, the colony collapses; if she survives, workers can rebuild a new nest nearby (they generally don’t reuse the torn one). In warmer conditions, nests can even become multi‑season (perennial) and grow very large. [edis.ifas.ufl.edu], [rnz.co.nz], [auckland.ac.nz]
Tree impact is minimal; your risk isn’t. The nest is papery (chewed wood + saliva) attached to branches; knocking it off seldom harms the conifer—but accessing and removing a large aerial nest safely is difficult and often requires specialist gear
Why you shouldn’t DIY‑destroy it (summary)
Coordinated chemical alarm ⇒ mass attack (not like bees; wasps can sting many times). [entomology...fe.uky.edu], [extension.psu.edu]
Risk stays high for hours due to lingering alarm marks. [ars.usda.gov]
Outcome is uncertain: if the queen survives, you may get a new nest nearby, and in warm years colonies can persist across season
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